Sharapova’s poor track record against the world No.1 is both a cause for concern and potent fuel for the fire to set the record straight at last in a blockbuster Australian Open final. Sharapova’s only hiccup, and it was a big one, was having to save two match points in her second round match against Alexandra Panova.
Since that match, nobody has taken more than three games in a set against Sharapova. She is certainly making the most out of her second life here in Melbourne.
Williams has been good without being great, dropping the opening set in her third-round match against Elina Svitolina, and the same in her fourth-round encounter against Garbine Muguruza. Sharapova is a chance – actually a better chance than normal – to turn the tables on Williams. Points will be very short, with a premium on serves, returns and the first shot immediately after that for each player. For example, the average rally length in the Williams v Dominika Cibulkova match was only 3.3 shots – less than two shots for each player. Williams sees her advantage as being in deconstructing the point before it even begins.
Sharapova has got to counter this strategy by being a step ahead in the guessing game as to where Williams will attack first. Serve location will be a key to the final. In the deuce court so far, Williams is serving more out wide (66) than down the middle (51). In the ad court, Williams’ favourite location is definitely down the middle, where almost two out of three (63 middle, to 37 wide) first serves have gone for the tournament.
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